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10 Real Estate Predictions for the Upcoming Year

Local real estate agent Jay Burnham offers 10 predictions for the local real estate market in 2012.

Fellow residents of Hamilton and Wenham - it's time again for my annual ten real estate predictions for the upcoming year.

A simple answer to any questions about the real estate market in 2012 is: If you want to know what the housing market will be like next year, ask the government. At this point, low mortgage interest rates only exist thanks to its efforts and job recovery is essential to real estate recovery.

But if you were to ask me, I predict:

1. Foreclosures and short sales will play a key role in U.S. housing.  The U.S real estate market is poised to be hit by another surge of bank repossessions.

2. Buyer confidence levels will remain low due to election-year mud-slinging.

3. Expect a fight over the home mortgage interest deduction.

4. Rates will remain low through the year.

5. Builders will begin building…slowly and cautiously…and their primary pool of buyers will be those that have sat on the sidelines and now believe that if we are not at the bottom, we are close enough to make a move without significant negative consequences, especially considering today's prices for new construction.

6. Many lower end move-up buyers will remain cautious, wary of further market reductions and/or fear of job loss. Consumer confidence will be tied to unemployment numbers.

7. We will see a rise in home sales in terms of units sold. The baby boomers began turning 65 in 2011, which will cause a rising number of retirement-driven listings.

8. There will be little or no appreciation in home values.

9. Homebuyer's real estate tools will become even more mobile… everything from smart phones, iPads, netbooks, portable scanners, e-signatures and more.

10. On the commercial front - retail, office and industrial vacancies will decline as more tenants seek, and receive, landlord concessions.

All in all, I predict a slow and steady recovery in real estate for 2012. Consumer confidence is the key to a turnaround in the market. The government has to stimulate the jobs recovery and when it does, the real estate market will follow.

Have a great year and remember this...2012 may be the BEST year ever to buy a home, with incredibly low interest rates and property prices.

Don't be one of those that in 2013 or 2014 says: "I remember when I could have bought that home for “$X" or "I missed the opportunity of a lifetime in 2012."

Jay Burnham is a Vice President of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage and a past President of the North Shore Association of REALTORS.

basilalcala January 03, 2012 at 11:27 AM
Refinance rates were higher today with PNC and Chase raising them but Bank of America and Citibank lowering them to find your rates with out SSN 123 Refinance is the best
Da January 03, 2012 at 12:57 PM
Good thoughts here Jay. With the foreclosures and builders points, I think there's also a place for home improvement loans to play a huge part. Buyers can take advantage of those foreclosed homes that need some work (since they're vacant) and help put builders to work on home improvements with loans like FHA 203(k) or HomePath Renovation. I think you're right - a steady improvement is ahead in 2012. Dan Moyle http://www.blog.amerifirst.com
SantaFean January 03, 2012 at 04:10 PM
I see more decline in housing prices as banks show how exposed they are to buying back UNsecured mortgage "backed" securities. This will cause more people to stay in their homes after they learn the banks do not have the original mortgage documents need to foreclose. BofA bought back FOUR BILLION dollars worth just in 2011. They expect to buy back at least EIGHT BILLION dollars this year. To see what is really going on you should ask your "servicer" or "pretender" lender where is the original mortgage note, who possesses it, who is the beneficial owner and who is the holder in due course? You will be lied to and misled! BTW basilacala is a bank stooge!
Tom Rogers January 05, 2012 at 11:40 PM
SantaFean said "To see what is really going on you should ask your "servicer" or "pretender" lender where is the original mortgage note, who possesses it, who is the beneficial owner and who is the holder in due course? You will be lied to and misled!" So true, but there are things you can do. First off, I'd suggest that anyone with a fairly recent mortgage from JPMorgan Chase Bank, Wells Fargo Bank, and BofA, visit the Essex County Registry of Deeds at www.salemdeeds.com, in particular visit www.salemdeeds.com/robosite/Default.aspx where you simply enter in the last name on the mortgage, & your street name. It will tell you if there is a robosigned document in your chain of title. I was surprised to find that one of my assignments was robosigned back in 2007. You can then get an affidavit from the Registrar which may come in useful later if/when the Attorney General's office goes forward with legal action. There is also a $20 kit available at http://findyournote.com. It’s "a program that provides you with the information and tools to challenge your mortgage lender to produce the original promissory note giving it claim to your property. If the lender delivers a fraudulent note or no note at all, the lender may have no claim to your property to either foreclose on it or negotiate for a modification. You may even learn that you own your home free and clear!" There are also links worth checking out at http://findyournote.com/in-the-news.html. FYI, I manage their website.
Jay Burnham January 06, 2012 at 12:05 PM
That's an interesting, albeit self-promotional, advertisement Tom.
Tom Rogers January 06, 2012 at 08:15 PM
It's not my website Jay, I just manage it. I feel no guilt providing a link to http://findyournote.com because I believe in what they are doing. The situation with mortgages is going to come to a boiling point, and people need to protect themselves. I urge people to spread the word to friends that might have: refinanced; are having problems covering their mortgage payments; those that are in foreclosure, or who have been foreclosed on. I think everyone should take the time to try to obtain more information about the true “owner” of their mortgage and promissory note. Litigation and settlements are going on all over the U.S. If you do not know who your true lender is, you may not be aware of a settlement that impacts your loan. You may be entitled to a lower principal, lower interest rate, settlement money or modification of your loan resulting from the terms of any settlement involving your lender. Tom

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